- Satellite operators may work peacefully with telecom providers for the time being
- But telecom providers will have to keep an eye on their revenue share
- There was disagreement among satellite executives as to whether physics will remain a major problem for satellite to act as a standalone mobile operator
A panel of satellite experts discussed the excitement (and perhaps some trepidation) in the telecom world from the entrance of direct-to-device (D2D) satellite connectivity.
During a recent virtual event, Fierce asked the question on everyone’s mind in telecom: Will D2D be complementary to telecom, or will it pose a competitive threat?
The answers varied from panelist to panelist. Kevin Cohen, VP of Direct to Device Business Development at Viasat, said it will be complementary because satellite can enable seamless roaming for wireless subscribers.
But Tarun Gupta, co-founder and chief business officer at Skylo Technologies, sees more nuance. He said satellite D2D will be either complementary or competitive to telecom, based on location. “In some places I can see where the mobile operators will view it as complementary, and some places I can see the satellite operator will want to be the primary solution.”
For instance, in rural places in the U.S. or in developing nations that have never been served with wireless, satellite is likely to become the primary mobile connection. “It’ll depend on what some of the larger players will do in the satellite industry and how they want to go after it, especially when they talk about, you know, a constellation of a million satellites,” said Gupta.
Manik Vinnakota, VP for Product and Customer Experience at Telesat, said currently D2D isn’t much of a revenue consideration for telcos, but it “will be in the back of their mind” because satellite D2D could become yet another competitor.
In Japan, Rakuten Mobile is working with AST SpaceMobile to provide emergency satellite connectivity for remote areas of the country, aiming for service toward the end of this year. Javed Khan, senior director of 5G RAN product management at Rakuten Symphony, said, “Based on our experience in Japan right now, a lot of the activity is filling in gaps in coverage." He added this is especially important when there are natural disasters and other emergencies.
“But I think over time, there could be partnerships, even though they also act as competitors,” Khan said. This could include roaming partnerships that could benefit both the mobile provider and the satellite operator in areas where their networks can’t support the traffic.
The trouble with physics
Many telecom industry analysts say that Starlink Mobile can’t become a standalone mobile operator because of physics. Satellite just doesn't have the necessary spectrum or capacity to penetrate dense urban areas or indoors. Fierce Network asked the panelists if they agree or disagree with this premise.
Gupta said, “I disagree. I think they can be a mobile operator.” And he mentioned that most people are on their mobile phones inside buildings that have Wi-Fi, either at home or at work. Many people are automatically connected to those Wi-Fi networks, so indoor cellular coverage isn’t that important to them. And when people are on the go, they’re not usually streaming 4K video or using other applications that require a lot of high bandwidth.
“If the price point was right, I could see satellite actually working quite a bit with Wi-Fi, doing a lot of the heavy lifting,” said Gupta.
But Telesat’s Vinnakota said he doesn’t see a future where we’ll have a satellite operator becoming a mainstream telco, anytime soon.
“I'm constantly doing a lot of things on my phone,” said Vinnakota. “When I'm in the car, I'm listening to my podcast. When I'm out and about, I'm running my AI agent. And I want something that is reliable and works.”
And he added that he would need an incentive to switch from a terrestrial mobile operator to a satellite provider. “What's the need for me to switch? Unless it is very, very cheap and I can do everything on it, it's not going to be a viable thing for me,” said Vinnakota.
Cohen with Viasat said satellite will be great for rural use cases, “but when it comes to indoor coverage in an office building in New York, the service will be awful.”
SpaceX obtains a mobile country code
Finally, Fierce noted that SpaceX got an ITU mobile network identifier: a mobile country code and mobile network code (MCC/MNC) of 901-08. And even though Starlink Mobile often says that it plans to provide a satellite service “complementary” to terrestrial wireless providers, the MCC/MNC is a step toward operating as a D2D provider on its own.
Previously, Elad Baram, Ceva’s director of Mobile Business, told Fierce, “As SATCOM operators move into direct-to-cell, owning an MCC-MNC becomes strategically important. It allows them to operate as a native network or support roaming, while maintaining control over subscriber management, service delivery and billing.”
On the Fierce Network panel, Gupta said of the MCC/MNC identifier, “It's pretty significant. They went in for a global phone number, basically. So, the first step you need to do to have a consumer presence is to have a phone number. That's how you're identified, and so they've gotten that. So that's why I believe they'll be the world's first global mobile operator.”
To watch the full satellite panel from Fierce Network’s recent virtual event, click here.