- Blue Origin’s blast is expected to push back Amazon Leo and AST SpaceMobile launches – although AST SpaceMobile says near-term launches are unaffected by the explosion
- The setback adds to an already tight launch bottleneck in the LEO market
- Other launch partners are available, but SpaceX’s additional capacity appears to be favoring Starlink satellites
This story was updated at 3:40 p.m. Eastern time May 29
It’s too early to know what caused Thursday night’s rocket explosion at Cape Canaveral, Florida, but it’s expected to further delay the broadband and direct-to-device (D2D) services that Amazon Leo and AST Space Mobile are launching.
The rocket that exploded was being tested for an upcoming mission by Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin that was to launch 48 satellites for Amazon Leo. The satellites were not on board the rocket Thursday night.
In a post on social media, Bezos said all personnel were accounted for and safe. “It’s too early to know the root cause but we’re already working to find it. Very rough day, but we’ll rebuild whatever needs rebuilding and get back to flying. It’s worth it,” he said.
He received words of encouragement from some fellow space buffs.
“Sorry to see this, I hope you recover quickly,” SpaceX CEO Elon Musk wrote on X.
“Keep at it. It will all be worth it. The future is going to be amazing,” said Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Chairman Brendan Carr on the same platform.
Amazon, AST race to space
In the D2D and broadband arenas, Amazon Leo and AST SpaceMobile are racing to launch their low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites to compete against SpaceX’s Starlink. Last month, AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird 7 was launched on Blue Origin’s New Glenn launch vehicle, but the satellite was placed into a lower-than-planned orbit and had to be deorbited.
Shares in AST SpaceMobile fell more than 17% today.
After this story first posted, AST SpaceMobile provided a statement to Fierce saying its near-term launches are unaffected by Thursday’s explosion. “None of the missions planned for the next few months are scheduled with Blue Origin,” the statement said.
“Our satellites are designed to be launcher-agnostic, and we have agreements in place with multiple launch providers, giving us flexibility across our launch program,” AST SpaceMobile added.
AST SpaceMobile’s next scheduled launch for Bluebirds 8 and 10 will be aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket.
Amazon told Fierce that it has four other types of rockets on its manifest to help add coverage and capacity to the network, and that mix of vehicles will allow it to continue deploying until New Glenn returns to flight. In fact, New Glenn represents less than 25% of the total number of more than 100 launches they’ve secured for Amazon Leo, according to Amazon.
The company also noted that network testing of its broadband connectivity service is already underway, and it will begin rolling out commercial service more broadly later this year as more of its satellites reach their operating altitudes and join the network.
As for Amazon’s Leo’s D2D service launch, that’s entirely dependent on Amazon’s acquisition of Globalstar, which hasn’t closed yet. Amazon Leo won't begin offering D2D services until then. Separately, Amazon expects to deploy its own next-generation Amazon Leo D2D system starting in 2028.
Analyst take
Still, the explosion of the New Glenn Rocket will likely delay launches for months, potentially pushing back the launch date for both Amazon's Leo’s broadband service and AST SpaceMobile’s D2D constellation, according to CCS Insight analyst Joe Gardiner.
Even before the difficulties that Blue Origin had with its rockets, there was a launch vehicle bottleneck, with Amazon Leo and AST SpaceMobile both behind on their launch schedules, he said.
Of course, there are other launch partners. For example, a new batch of satellites for Amazon’s internet constellation are due to launch into orbit tonight on a United Launch Alliance Atlas V 551 rocket, according to Space.com.
The number of SpaceX launches is increasing each year as well, but that additional capacity appears to be going toward Starlink satellites as opposed to other constellations’ satellites, Gardiner said.
This story has been updated with information from Amazon and AST SpaceMobile.